Great part of VSE moon missions may fail

[Gaetano Marano]

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I think that great part of VSE moon missions may fail due to a problem in its architecture.

 

I explain why that may happen (and how to avoid it) in my article (with SLV concept image) here: www.gaetanomarano.it/articles/004.html

 

If you can't access my website try later or read the text-only version of the article here: http://gaetanomarano.bravehost.com/articles/004m.htm

 

I'm sorry but I can post and answer only in english

 

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[Jolfulorc]

Hello,

 

In your argumentation, you say that the 60' technologie and the Saturn V stuff is 100% reliable ! I don't agree with you. Just two example that I have in mind now :

* The Appolo I's fire

* The Appolo XIII's accident (or the half success if you're an optimistic )

 

Same thing for the smaller rockets and launchers, you can't say that they are 100% safe : the MeteoSat's crash and so on...

 

You say also that the one-and-half architecture of the new transportation system will reduce the number of flight compared with the other system. I'll answer that many times in space exploration programms (Europeans, Russian or whatever the country) the disponibility of the shuttles (or rockets as you want!) has been reduced by 2 (STS programm!) or more, so your forcasts are really too optimistic ! 4 flights of ten days to the moon per year ? It's really a lot ! Imagine how many people it will need to run the control, the CEV and simply the base ???

It's unreal to think that the White House will spend so much money in a Moon race at this speed ! There is any other country able to launch astronauts towards the Moon (China is drastically reducing its space programm).

 

You say that the one-and-half architecture may fail due to its complexity. Well, it's not a bad argument, but the NASA's guys know what they do ! And if they think they will be able to launch two vehicule in the same time in destination of the Moon, I belive them ! May be, the problems will be huge, but the space exploration is a very complex business and people who work on it are enough qualifed to make their dream comes true !

 

One thing on formal text : please explain your abbreviations !

 

I still have a lot of thing to say, but it's getting late and I have to sleep so,

Goodbye !

Jolfulorc

PS : c'est tard pour traduire ce que j'ai écrit

[Gaetano Marano]

(texte cité)

Hello' date='

 

In your argumentation, you say that the 60' technologie and the Saturn V stuff is 100% reliable ! I don't agree with you. Just two example that I have in mind now :

* The Appolo I's fire

* The Appolo XIII's accident (or the half success if you're an optimistic )

 

 

[/quote']

 

 

despite the Soyuz (with '60s technology) still fly and is very reliable, I don't suggest to build the SLV with old technology, I only say that a big rocket may be safe and reliable for crew like a little CLV

 

the SaturnV was 100% reliable, the two Apollo accidents was due to CM and SM problems

 

I don't say that little rockets are 100% safe, I only say that a rocket, little or big, may be safe and reliable if well designed

 

the one-and-half architecture reduce the number of flights due to many reasons and the first of them is "money"

 

if you build two rockets instead of one, you need twice the money and the time for R&D, build, transport, assembly, launch, etc.

 

with the money saved in R&D you can do 50% more missions and with the time saved with a single launch you can do four missions per year insted of two

 

the shuttle can't fly so many times like in its early days only because now it is too old, then, too dangerous (all vehicles have a "life")

 

four missions per year are possible with an SLV simply because it need half the time of a two-launches mission (NASA has planned two missions per year with two rockets each, then...)

 

the ten days on the moon and the six days to go and come back to the moon are only a little part of a mission, 90% of the time is transport, assembly, test, etc., with an SLV this pre-launch time will be less than half than with two rockets

 

the four missions will be not made in the same days, but, if NASA really wants to explore the moon and start build a colony, MUST make many missions per years and some also in the same days to have many astronauts on the moon

 

I don't think that NASA will have more money from US Congress, but, if NASA will save $20+ billion of R&D and hardware, may use the money saved to make more missions with the same funds

 

I think that China will be a big surprise, they don't reveal the real plans they have for space but we will see them when they are ready...

 

the one-and-half architecture may fails ALSO for its complexity, but, FIRST, for more simple reason: a long list of little, stupid delays that exceed the orbital life of the EDS

 

no, many times (I don't put here a "brief list"...) NASA guys DON'T know what they do, simply look at how many big changes they are making to its "final" ESAS report published four months ago after two years of "study"...

 

they "think" (or "hope") to launch two vehicles in the same days but many times they will not do it due toa "sum of delays" (like happened many times in NASA launches)

 

I agree that space exploration (already) is very complex with to-day's and past "single launches", then, why make it 10 times more complex and multiply problems and risks with an unnecessary duplication of launches?

 

about abbreviations, I use the common terms of NASA like LSAM, CEV, etc., the only new term is SLV (single launch vehicle)

[syncopatte]

non, rien, me suis trompé....

[Jolfulorc]

Enfin, je vais pas répondre à notre anglophone ami ...

 

A bientôt !

[montmein69]

(texte cité)

Enfin' date=' je vais pas répondre à notre anglophone ami ...

 

[/quote']

 

Je trouverai dommage qu'un forum francophone dérive ....

vers une sorte de spam linguistique.

 

Il existe un grand nombre de sites anglophones (y compris en Europe)

sur lesquels on peut développer son point de vue.

 

[montmein69]

(texte cité)

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I think that ..../cut/...

 

I explain why that may happen (and how to avoid it) .../cut/....

 

Gaetano' date=' tu pourras défendre tes idées dans la langue anglaise sur ce genre de forum :

 

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/forums/th...id=2193&posts=3

 

http://tinyurl.com/zk5xn

 

On y trouve de nombreux arguments ... dont certains de ceux que tu reprends dans ton article.

 

Il faut rester modeste pour y intervenir ... surtout sur la politique américaine .. quand on est européen.

Car les décisions sur l'espace c'est de la technique mais aussi beaucoup de considérations économiques et politiques.

[Gaetano Marano]

(texte cité)

Je trouverai dommage qu'un forum francophone dérive ....

vers une sorte de spam linguistique.

 

Il existe un grand nombre de sites anglophones (y compris en Europe)

sur lesquels on peut développer son point de vue.

 

 

 

traduit avec babelfish - si le webmaster du situé et les visiteurs du situé qui parlent seulement français désirent que je n'écrive pas sur ce forum peux ne pas lui faire (de fatemi savoir) j'écris sur ce forum (malgré les difficultés linguistiche) parce que je suis européen et ai en menthes d'exposer même quelques considérations sur le programme spatial européen les véhicules spatiaux américains comme CEV nous concernent même vu que l'europe n'en a pas...

[Gaetano Marano]

(texte cité)

Gaetano' date=' tu pourras défendre tes idées dans la langue anglaise sur ce genre de forum :

 

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/forums/th...id=2193&posts=3

 

http://tinyurl.com/zk5xn

 

On y trouve de nombreux arguments ... dont certains de ceux que tu reprends dans ton article.

 

Il faut rester modeste pour y intervenir ... surtout sur la politique américaine .. quand on est européen.

Car les décisions sur l'espace c'est de la technique mais aussi beaucoup de considérations économiques et politiques.

 

 

traduit avec babelfish - si tu cherches avec Google tu découvriras que beaucoup des thèses "reprises" dans mien j'articule () ont été par contre proposées de moi quatre, il y à cinq, six mois sur forums américains et (ensuite) des reprises d'autres sans citer la source des idées (me) - à propos des problèmes economiques et politiques : j'exprime seulement mes opinions, les techniquex et des politiciens font déjà ce qu'ils désirent - à propos (seulement de CERTAINS, no tous le forum) sites américains... n'est pas facile exprimer critiques ou idées différentes parce qu'elles sont des centaines d'users elles sont en réalité des personnes qui réalisent les nouvelles fusées, l'etc et si tu dis que quelque chose n'est pas parfait t'attaquent vite férocement